Market cycles & risk
Rates, cycles, leverage discipline and reserves — surviving the three crashes you will invest through.
1 pieces, ordered by horizon
Y2Real estate market cycles explained: how to invest through all four phasesEvery market moves through recovery, expansion, hyper-supply and recession. What each phase looks like, what to buy in it, and why the cycle transfers property from the impatient to the prepared.Deep dive5mMore in Mindset
Long-game thinkingWhy twenty years is the only edge nobody is competing for, and how to hold a position that long in a this-quarter world.First principlesThe five ways a property pays you — cashflow, appreciation, amortization, tax, leverage — and how every strategy is a different mix of them.Investor psychologyFear at the closing table, greed at the top of the cycle, boredom in the middle years. The behavioral failure modes and their defenses.Goals & your thesisWriting the one-page twenty-year thesis, setting stage gates, and knowing which game you are playing at any moment.Education & networkMentors, partners, lenders and your first team. The people-compounding that precedes the money-compounding.