The numbers · The Long Game calculator · Mindset
Twenty years is the only edge nobody is competing for.
Take one pile of starting capital down both roads and watch what leverage, rent and time actually do. Change the assumptions until you believe them — the shape survives.
Inputs
Starting capital$60,000
Property appreciation3.50%/yr
Rental yield (NOI ÷ value)6.50%
Mortgage rate6.50%
Stock market return10.0%/yr
Horizon20 years
Model: 25% down + 3% closing per property; NOI = yield × value; cashflow accumulates (10% friction) and buys another same-size property whenever it covers a down payment. Simplified on purpose — the shape is the lesson.
The same $60k — two roads, 20 years
Real estate (equity + cash)Index fund
Real estate outcome
$538k
2 properties accumulated, 9.0x your capital
Index fund outcome
$404k
10% compounded, no effort, full liquidity
The edge
1.33x
Real estate ÷ stocks, same capital, same years
The verdict
Real estate edges out the index fund at these assumptions — the margin is leverage and loan paydown doing quiet work. Push appreciation or yield to your actual market and watch the gap move.